Hugh White says a war between the US and China over Taiwan would "probably be the biggest and most disruptive war the world has seen since 1945". Surrounded: Disturbing report from Ukraine. What would war with China look like for Australia? "No one can be sure how that war would play out, because there have been no major maritime wars since Japan was defeated in 1945, but by far the most likely outcome would be a costly stalemate in which both sides lost heavily but neither side could secure a decisive, war-wining advantage. I told President Xi that we will maintain a strong military presence in the Indo-Pacific just as we do with NATO in Europe not to start conflict, but to prevent conflict, US President Joe Biden told a joint session of Congress in April. Professor Clinton Fernandesis a former intelligence officer in the Australian military and now Professor of International and Political Studies at the University of New South Wales. It may be possible for the US to operate from bases in northern Australia, though whether overflight rights would be granted by Indonesia is unlikely. Five-centuries-old saffron and ginger found preserved in shipwreck off Sweden, Chinese migrants walked a gruelling 500km to Victoria's goldfields in the 19th century. Taiwan is within that zone: 180 nautical miles. Would parallel circumstances that led to the invasion of Iraq be "acceptable" in this case? "Wars contain elements of the irrational: pride, fear, ego, confidence, humiliation, and other emotions that elude our attempts at calculation. Russia, China, Britain, U.S. and France say no one can win nuclear war. The People's Liberation Army is the military arm of the ruling Chinese Communist Party, which oversees the PLA through its Central . And the West may not be able to do much about it. An accident could trigger a cycle of escalation. From Taiwan, the PLA could also pivot south, effectively enveloping the Philippines and giving Beijing easier access to the resource-rich Benham Rise, Dr Davis writes. Hugh White, who is also Emeritus Professor of Strategic Studies at the Australian National University, is clear in his analysis: "I do not think there is any credible chance that America, with or without Australia's support, could win a war with China over Taiwan." But will it be safer for women? And they cannot be rearmed at sea. "As a continental power, China has a distinct preference for land warfare. China has demonstrated its capabilities already, including in Taiwan, where it has waged disinformation campaigns, and in serious hacking incidents in the United States. He says given the rate at which Chinese forces are modernising and building capability and capacity "a Chinese victory over the US is the more likely outcome beyond 2035". I draw here an important difference between politicians and statesmen. Should US tensions with China flare into a war there is no question that these days Washington would put enormous pressure on Albanese, or any future leader, to join them in that conflict. Chris Zappone and Eryk Bagshaw June 30, 2021 China-US superpower showdown: military strength Matthew Absalom-Wong "Firepower strikes described above would be accompanied by cyber operations to ensure information is blocked as well. He spent the bulk. Spain is a notable exception, however, with 48% believing Russia to have the advantage currently, compared to 32% who feel neither side has the upper hand and 6% who think Ukraine is winning. To walk countries away from war we have concluded that statesmanship finds more purchase on risk aversion than on hawkishness. And given Beijings singular focus on finding a way to sink US-style aircraft carriers, their capacity to carry combat aircraft into effective range has been dramatically curtailed. There are always a few possibilities that the right thing to do is to go to war irrespective of the expectation that we could 'win' whatever that means. As Australia enjoys all the benefits of a free and open society in a stable and functioning democracy, our principles and values must extend to supporting the survival of Taiwan.. "This looks like another reason for statesmanship in averting this possibility.". All times AEDT (GMT +11). But there's also bad news ahead. At home, a concerted effort must be made to find ways to better protect U.S. traditional and social media against Chinese disinformation. We once had a praiseworthy reputation for the quality of our leadership and our officials. So to contribute to this discussion, Ive sought analysis from four of Australias most experienced military strategists and asked them exactly what Australias involvement in a war with China could look like. This last outpost of pre-Communist China is an embarrassing thorn in Chairman Xi Jinpings paw. In a matter of minutes, Beijings Rocket Force could cripple Taiwans military, infrastructure and ports. These operations would most likely be accompanied by cyber offensives to disrupt electricity, gas, water, transport, health care and other public services. Chinas new Type-055 destroyers can carry 112 large missiles. An embarrassed politician may suddenly feel compelled to enforce a vague red line. Australia's oldest running coal-fired power station is about to close. That leaves its navy as its primary fighting force. Ifthey think the blockade is failing they may declare victory by pointing to the damage already inflicted, or they might escalate to attacking US forces that are supporting Taiwan. And heres our email: letters@nytimes.com. The vision is not a new one: White knights charging forth, flags flying, to save friends from a bellowing dragon. But which one would have military superiority in outright conflict? Which is why Dr Davis argues any conflict would likely focus on two strategic waterways the Bashi Channel and Miyako Strait that guard the China Seas. Space would be the first place both sides would go to strike the others forces in event of a conflict, says Tate Nurkin of the US-based Intelligence Group. He says given the rate at which Chinese forces are modernising and building both capability and capacity, "a Chinese victory over the US is the more likely outcome beyond 2035". But China is a different kind of foe a military, economic and technological power capable of making a war felt in the American homeland. They have different opinions on a range of issues, but one thing that is striking about the four is what they agree on. everything from electronics to furniture to shoes. But the Chinese are prepared to wage a much broader type of warfare that would reach deep into American society. In its consequences, it would be profoundly and devastatingly different. Former defence minister, Christopher Pyne, told an audience in Adelaide that Taiwan was the most likely next flashpoint in the region. And all are watching with great interest as the drums of war beat in some quarters regarding a possible war with China. The PLAs missile forces are central to Chinas efforts to deter and counter third-party intervention in a regional conflict, a US congressional report concluded this month. I am convinced that the challenges facing the United States are serious, and its citizens need to become better aware of them. "Assuming that China was eventually able to control the Taiwan Strait, it would deploy land forces to Taiwan, both to subdue/destroy the Taiwanese army, any US or allied ground forces that might be in Taiwan, and then to occupy the country.". Beyond 10 years, who knows? The US military has been racking up decades of in-the-field experience, most recently with deployments in Afghanistan and Iraq and the Middle East. "In the case of war with China the questions we need to ask ourselves are: "When I stepped down as the Chief of theDefence Force in July 2002 I had not seen any information leading to the conclusion that an invasion of Iraq was inevitable. The US could no longer win a war against China China's navy has just completed a mission that has left US officials terrified - and it has serious implications for Australia's security. All have been involved in sensitive military operations. If war were to break out, China can be expected to use this to disrupt communications and spread fake news and other disinformation. "The question is really about a force-on-force comparison between China and the US. It runs between the Japanese islands of Mikako and Okinawa. Are bills set to rise? "This decision over the possibility of war with China could be made more difficult because of ANZUS. A war with China over Taiwan, awful as that would be, involves no Australian national interests. "I hope they don't mean that, just as Britain has the Gurkhas, the Americans have us. Possibly completely different. In this scenario, the US and its allies could respond by conducting airlifts to Taiwan. AEST = Australian Eastern Standard Time which is 10 hours ahead of GMT (Greenwich Mean Time), abc.net.au/news/china-us-war-what-would-conflict-look-like-taiwan/101998772, Help keep family & friends informed by sharing this article. "A cross-strait invasion is the most dangerous scenario from China's perspective. There are still hundreds of diplomats and politicians around the world including in Canberra working openly and behind the scenes to ensuretensions between China and the US never escalate into war. While the US remains ahead in space for now, Davis says how long US dominance lasts is not clear. Humans have become a predatory species. The 100,000-strong Rocket Force was made a separate branch of the Peoples Liberation Army in 2015. But it doesnt follow that either America or Australia should therefore go to war with China to defend Taiwan, Professor Hugh White noted in 2019. Beyond out-producing the US Navy in the number of warships at a rate of four to one, the PLA Strategic Rocket Force has put US aircraft carriers at risk with the fielding of the DF-21D and DF-26 anti-carrier ballistic missiles, Mr Fanell said. (Handout photo from the U.S. navy) Admiral James Stavridis was 16th Supreme Allied Commander of NATO and 12th Dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. This is how we got here and what needs to change, 'Please confirm what Muslim refers to': Why Ali's birthday payment for his nephew was flagged by his bank, Kade was a fit 31-year-old when he died from a heart attack, Sherpa are world famous for their work, which is synonymous with their name. China has built the world's largest navy and has become increasingly assertive over contested areas such as the South China Sea. I did not see anything like the same discontent in Australia. This service may include material from Agence France-Presse (AFP), APTN, Reuters, AAP, CNN and the BBC World Service which is copyright and cannot be reproduced. At the last G20 foreign ministers' meeting, in Bali last summer, Lavrov walked out amid condemnations of Russia's war and its impact on global food and energy costs. Performers dressed as the military celebrated Chinas military might on Monday nights gala in Beijing to celebrate the Chinese Communist Partys centenary. The geographic focus is decisive. Professor Clinton Fernandes, a former intelligence officer in the Australian military. If Australians are hearing the 'beating drums' of war, as Minister Mike Pezzullo put it, is it because Scott Morrison's Coalition government thinks banging on about China will be a winning . How this young Indigenous artist is taking inspiration from anime and manga to celebrate his own culture, NBA star Ja Morant suspended, 'takes full responsibility' for nightclub gun video, Andrew Tate shuts down cancer rumors, is accused of recruiting politicians to his cause, 'If carers are going to survive, they need this', says resident pioneering dementia respite care centre. "Australia's armed forces add very little by way of capability to those of the US. It means mine laying by air and naval units, particularly submarines, blockading ports, inspecting maritime traffic including commercial shipping, intercepting aircraft, and attacking adversary military forces as necessary. We acknowledge Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples as the First Australians and Traditional Custodians of the lands where we live, learn, and work. The USs 1.38 million active personnel are better trained and equipped than many of their 1.9 million Chinese peers but getting them in place, and in time, to take on China would be a crucial task. Chinas nuclear weapons are estimated to number between 200 and 350, a mere 5 per cent of the United States arsenal, but potentially enough to deter broader conflict through the prospect of mutual destruction. "If they think the blockade is failing, they may declare victory by pointing to the damage already inflicted or they might escalate to attacking US forces supporting Taiwan. The bulk of these goods is transported aboard ships along sea lanes increasingly controlled by Chinese commercial interests that are ultimately answerable to Chinas party-state. In the recent parliamentary inquiry into war powers reform, the Department of Defence said it didn't think parliament should have authority to decide our involvement because that 'could undermine the confidence of our international partners as a reliable and timely security partner'. "They have publicly been very clear about not only . "Australia's real utility is as a strategic asset, giving both legitimacy and credibility to the US decision to employ its very formidable military force, and at the same time providing the US with a secure rear that could guarantee logistic and operational support. Maybe, the record would show otherwise in time? For a second day in a row Taiwan has reported a large-scale air force incursion, escalating tensions in the region. "They would probably inflict a lot of damage on Chinese targets, but they would suffer very serious losses in the process. Critically, the United States is no longer able to outproduce China in advanced weapons and other supplies needed in a war, which the current one in Ukraine has made clear. "Taiwan doesn't have a Plan B that's the big problem. But this will take time. March 11, 2021 Ryan Morgan Last fall, the U.S. Air Force played out a war scenario with China, in which China begins its attack by deploying a biological weapon throughout the Indo-Pacific region. Some 64 percent of Australians viewed a potential military conflict between the U.S. and China as a "critical threat" to Australia's national interests, behind Russia's foreign policy (68 percent . The most immediate fight, however, appears to be centred on Taiwan. "America would then have to decide whether to go to war to break the blockade.". We dont own cargo ships to force vital supplies through any blockade. The decision to go to war would not require a public discussion. [A war is] something that you and I may well have to confront in the next five to 10 years, he said. Taiwan is slightly bigger than the state of Maryland; if you recall how quickly Afghanistan and Kabul fell to the Taliban in 2021, you start to realize that the takeover of Taiwan could happen relatively quickly. "On the other hand, if the US decided to attack China the provocation becomes essential to decision making. The war has exposed divisions within the G20 that go beyond Russia and China. We hope that Australia will fully understand the high sensitivity of the Taiwan issue, adhere to our One China principle, be cautious in its words and actions, refrain from sending any wrong signals to the secessionist forces of Taiwan independence, a foreign ministry spokesperson said. Six large amphibious vessels have been launched, three since 2015, and a third aircraft carrier, larger than its predecessors, will soon be completed. "Would Australia have taken steps to make sure its own intelligence is based on Australian information and assessments? Who would win in a battle between the U.S. and Australia? I don't think so! And I cannot see America being willing to risk Chinese nuclear retaliation against the US homeland for Taiwan's sake. All agree, for example, that the United States with or without Australias assistance cannot win a war against China. "As I see the decision for the invasion of Iraq I think it was made by the Prime Minister. "In its causation, [war with China] would be no different from any of the wars Australia has participated in since World War II. A new 'veloway' is welcome news for Melbourne's cyclists. Allan Behm, who is now head of the international and security program at The Australia Institute, says were the US and China to go to war over the next five to 10years, the best one might envisage for the US is a stalemate. As a career strategic analyst and defense planner, including for Australias Defense Department, I have spent decades studying how a war could start, how it would play out and the military and nonmilitary operations that China is prepared to conduct. Mock attacks will no longer be fake. Admiral Chris Barriemakes the point that its possible the impact on Australia of any war with China could be greater than any other participant because of Australias low population. Would any divergence of perspectives be thrashed out before going to war? The Chinese government last week released a 12-point plan it devised to bring about an end to .

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